A new detailed forecast developed by three major European cycling bodies is predicting the European bicycle market to grow by 47% in terms of annual sales, during the decade to 2030.
This translates to an increase of 10 million bikes sold per year, from approximately 20 million bike sales in 2019 to 30 million in 2030.
The three collaborating organisations are the European Cyclists Federation (ECF) which is an umbrella group for cycling organisations across Europe, The Confederation of the European Bicycle Industry (CONEBI) with is the trade association of European bicycle manufacturers, and Cycle Industries Europe (CIE) which is a more broad based bike industry funded advocacy and policy organisation.
Using a new forecasting approach which analysed current trends, COVID-19 impacts and government announcements about future cycling investments, the three European cycling organisations have projected both bike and e-bike sales for the next ten years in 30 countries.
E-bikes are predicted to grow from 3.7 million bikes sold in 2019 to 17 million sold in the year 2030. If that prediction proves to be correct that would mean an increase of 458%.
2020 numbers to date suggest that the e-bike market will end the year up 23% compared to 2019. This is despite several months of bike shop closures in many countries and pressure on supply chains. Because of the current demand and the support already committed by governments in terms of new infrastructure and purchase premiums for e-bikes, the associations believe that the ten million ebikes per year sales mark could be achieved as soon as 2024.
The industry associations are working with ECF’s experts in policy analysis to show the relationship between government action, cycle use and sales. Since the beginning of the epidemic in March 2020, ECF’s ‘COVID Measures Tracker’ shows that Europe has spent €1 billion (A$1.6 billion) on cycling infrastructure and more than 2,300 kilometres of new bike lanes have been built. A new version of the tracker is being supported by the analysis of cycling strategies for all EU countries. You can see more information at the tracker dashboard page here.
A longer version of this article was first published in BikeBiz.co.uk